Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition (DT) is a transition from high birth rates and high death rates to lower birth rates and lower death rates. This transition occurs as a country or region develops from a pre-industrial economic system to an industrialized economic system. Most developed countries have completed the demographic transition and have low birth rates. Most developing countries are in this transition process right now. Some exceptions include poor countries mainly located in sub-Saharan Africa and some Middle East countries as well (Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Yemen, and Afghanistan). The demographic transition model can be taken to predict that birth rates will continue to go down as societies grow increasingly wealthy; however, recent data contradicts this, suggesting that beyond a certain level of development birth rates increase again. In the very long term, the demographic transition should be reversed via evolutionary pressure for higher fertility and higher mortality. This theory was proposed on demographic transition in 1929.